Latest Analysis

Global forecast of future earthquake activity produced by the Open Hazards Group a spin-off from QuakeSim. The colors indicate the probability of an M>6.5 earthquake within 50 km of each site during the next year. A scale is shown at left for reference. The forecast uses methods based on observational laws including the Gutenberg-Richter relation and Omori-Utsu aftershock frequency laws. When the parameters are fit to past observations, future probabilities can be computed. Data are taken from the ANSS catalog of global seismicity. A critical part of the process of forecasting is validation and verification through backtesting and monitoring. Tests that are used to assess the quality of the forecast are the Reliability/Attributes test, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic test. These tests can be used to ascertain forecast reliability, resolution, skill and sharpness. The WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research has a good description of tests. (Rundle et al, 2012)

The GPS station monitor shows daily state changes based on analysis of position time series for each station using QuakeSim's RDAHMM software.  The GPS position time series solutions are provided by the JPL GIPSY Context Group, which is funded by NASA's REASoN program. More detail and the station monitors for other GPS position time series solution can be found on the time series page under the portal.

The "Scorecard" is a forecast map, or "seismic hotspot" map. The colored areas (hotspots) are found by a method that computes the increase in potential for large (magnitude M > 5.0) earthquakes. Research has shown that this procedure locates areas (hotspots) that are sensitive to M>5 events that will occur over approximately the next ten years. The blue spots indicate earthquakes in the hotspot area while yellow spots indicate earthquakes that occurred outside of the forecast area. Note that the forecast is static, based on Holliday et al, 2007, while earthquakes above M 5 are added when they occur. The scorecard is about 90% successful.

Holliday et al., Seimological Research Letters, 78, 87-93, 2007