Current Forecast

Global forecast of future earthquake activity produced by the Open Hazards Group a spin-off from QuakeSim. The colors indicate the probability of an M>6.5 earthquake within 50 km of each site during the next year. A scale is shown at left for reference. The forecast uses methods based on observational laws including the Gutenberg-Richter relation and Omori-Utsu aftershock frequency laws. When the parameters are fit to past observations, future probabilities can be computed. Data are taken from the ANSS catalog of global seismicity. A critical part of the process of forecasting is validation and verification through backtesting and monitoring. Tests that are used to assess the quality of the forecast are the Reliability/Attributes test, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic test. These tests can be used to ascertain forecast reliability, resolution, skill and sharpness. The WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research has a good description of tests. (Rundle et al, 2012)