QuakeSim's earthquake forecasting methodology scored well in a recent competition organized by the Southern California Earthquake Center. In 2005 seven forecasts were submitted to the competition. The QuakeSim forecast, led by Professor John Rundle at UC Davis was most accurate in picking the locations of future earthquakes. Results were published in the September 26, 2011 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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Global forecast of future earthquake activity produced by the Open Hazards Group. The colors indicate the probability of an M>5 earthquake within 50 km of each site during the next year. A scale is shown at left for reference. The forecast uses methods based on observational laws including the Gutenberg-Richter relation and Omori-Utsu aftershock frequency laws. When the parameters are fit to past observations, future probabilities can be computed. Data are taken from the ANSS catalog of global seismicity. A critical part of the process of forecasting is validation and verification through backtesting and monitoring. Tests that are used to assess the quality of the forecast are the Reliability/Attributes test, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic test. These tests can be used to ascertain forecast reliability, resolution, skill and sharpness. The WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research has a good description of tests.
