<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yoder, MB</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Record-breaking earthquake precursors</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tectonophysics</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Submitted</style></year></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sachs, MK</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heien, E. M.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yikilimaz, MB</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, LH</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Virtual California Earthquake Simulator</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Seismological Research Letters</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Submitted</style></year></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, JW</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, MT</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DeJong, E</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant Ludwig, L</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A Distributed Approach to Computational Earthquake Science: Opportunities and Challenges</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computing in Science and Engineering</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">in press</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yoder, Mark. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A geometrical frequency-magnitude scaling transition: Measuring b=1.5 for large earthquakes</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tectonophysics</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">532-535</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">167-174</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">167</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jay Parker</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Robert Granat</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Eric De Jong</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shigeru Suzuki</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marlon Pierce</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geoffrey Fox</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">John Rundle</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dennis McLeod</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rami Al-Ghanmi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lisa Grant Ludwig</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim: Integrated Modeling and Analysis of Geologic and Remotely Sensed Data</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE Aerospace Conference</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">computational infrastructure</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">database</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fault</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">InSAR</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">remote sensing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">UAVSAR</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Big Sky, Montana</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The QuakeSim Project improves understanding of earthquake processes by integrating model applications and various heterogeneous data sources within a web services environment. The project focuses on the earthquake cycle and related crustal deformation. Spaceborne GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture data provide information on near-term crustal deformation, while paleoseismic geologic data provide longer-term information on earthquake fault processes. These data sources are integrated into QuakeSim&amp;rsquo;s QuakeTables database and are accessible by users or various model applications. An increasing amount of UAVSAR data is being added to the QuakeTables database through a map browsable interface. Model applications can retrieve data from QuakeTables or remotely served GPS velocity data services or users can manually input parameters into the models. Pattern analysis of GPS and seismicity data has proved useful for mid-term forecasting of earthquakes and for detecting subtle changes in crustal deformation. The GPS time series analysis has also proved useful for detecting changes in processing of the data. Development of the QuakeSim computational infrastructure has benefitted greatly from having the user in the development loop. Improved visualization tools enable more efficient data exploration and understanding. Tools must provide flexibility to science users for exploring data in new ways, but also must facilitate standard, intuitive, and routine uses for end users such as emergency responders.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heien, E. M.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sachs, MK</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Understanding Long Term Earthquake Behavior Through Simulation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computing in Science and Engineering</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">in press</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Wang, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ma, YM</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, JW</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, MT</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Using Service-Based Geographical Information System to Support Earthquake Research and Disaster Response</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computing in Science and Engineering</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">in press</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yoder, Mark R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Complexity and Extreme Events in Geoscience</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">American Geophysical Union</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">(in press)</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes: Complexity and extreme events</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yoder, Mark</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sachs, Michael K.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, William</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, Louise H.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake precursors: activation or quiescence?</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">clustering</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">correlations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">memory</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Persistence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Probablistic forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Time series analysis</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">187</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">225-236</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We discuss the long-standing question of whether the probability for large earthquake occurrence (magnitudes m &gt; 6.0) is highest during time periods of smaller event activation, or highest during time periods of smaller event quiescence. The physics of the activation model are based on an idea from the theory of nucleation, that a small magnitude earthquake has a finite probability of growing into a large earthquake. The physics of the quiescence model is based on the idea that the occurrence of smaller earthquakes (here considered as magnitudes m &gt; 3.5) may be due to a mechanism such as critical slowing down, in which fluctuations in systems with long-range interactions tend to be suppressed prior to large nucleation events. To illuminate this question, we construct two end-member forecast models illustrating, respectively, activation and quiescence. The activation model assumes only that activation can occur, either via aftershock nucleation or triggering, but expresses no choice as to which mechanism is preferred. Both of these models are in fact a means of filtering the seismicity time-series to compute probabilities. Using 25 yr of data from the California-Nevada catalogue of earthquakes, we show that of the two models, activation and quiescence, the latter appears to be the better model, as judged by backtesting (by a slight but not significant margin). We then examine simulation data from a topologically realistic earthquake model for California seismicity, Virtual California. This model includes not only earthquakes produced from increases in stress on the fault system, but also background and off-fault seismicity produced by a BASS-ETAS driving mechanism. Applying the activation and quiescence forecast models to the simulated data, we come to the opposite conclusion. Here, the activation forecast model is preferred to the quiescence model, presumably due to the fact that the BASS component of the model is essentially a model for activated seismicity. These results lead to the (weak) conclusion that California seismicity may be characterized more by quiescence than by activation, and that BASS-ETAS models may not be robustly applicable to the real data.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yıkılmaz, M. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heien, E. M.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, LH</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A fault and seismicity based composite simulation in northern California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/18/955/2011/</style></url></web-urls></urls><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">955–966</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yoder, Mark</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Van Aalsburg, Jordan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abaimov, Sergey</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">John Rundle</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Statistical Variability and Tokunaga Branching of Aftershock Sequences Utilizing BASS Model Simulations</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pure and Applied Geophysics</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0411-2</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Birkh\aa user Basel</style></publisher><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-17</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10.1007/s00024-011-0411-2</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, Margaret T.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, Robert A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, Paul B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, Louise H.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Analysis of emergent fault element behavior in Virtual California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE &amp; EXPERIENCE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake physics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">emergent phenomena</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">statistical analysis</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 25</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12, SI</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOHN WILEY &amp; SONS LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE ATRIUM, SOUTHERN GATE, CHICHESTER PO19 8SQ, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1665-1683</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Virtual California simulation tool can be used to study fault and stress interaction scenarios for realistic California earthquakes and produces a large data set, which is ideally suited for statistical analysis. As with any complex system, it can produce emergent phenomena unexpected by its designers; these can be studied in order to gain insight into real world geophysical phenomena. We have developed a statistical method to analyze Virtual California data that enables us to determine the correlation relationships between the simulated fault elements. We present the results of this analysis of 40 000 years of data for 59 faults (639 elements). We focus on five specific cases that display noteworthy behavior that includes long-range fault interactions, activation-quiescence, and complex small-scale interactions. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES), Cairns, AUSTRALIA, MAY 11-16, 2008</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Serino, C. A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cellular automaton model of damage</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW E</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JAN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1, Part 2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">81</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We investigate the role of equilibrium methods and stress transfer range in describing the process of damage. We find that equilibrium approaches are not applicable to the description of damage and the catastrophic failure mechanism if the stress transfer is short ranged. In the long-range limit, equilibrium methods apply only if the healing mechanism associated with ruptured elements is instantaneous. Furthermore we find that the nature of the catastrophic failure depends strongly on the stress transfer range. Long-range transfer systems have a failure mechanism that resembles nucleation. In short-range stress transfer systems, the catastrophic failure is a continuous process that, in some respects, resembles a critical point.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, H. -C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mignan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Toya, Y.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kohen-Kadosh, S. Z. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, C. -C.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ergodicity and Earthquake Catalogs: Forecast Testing and Resulting Implications</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Canadian seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ergodic behavior</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PI method</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Taiwanese seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Thirumalai-Mountain metric</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6-7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">167</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">763-782</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system (Tiampo et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501, 2003; Phys. Rev. E 75, 066107, 2007). Ergodicity in this context not only requires that the system is stationary for these networks at the applicable spatial and temporal scales, but also implies that they are in a state of metastable equilibrium, one in which the ensemble averages can be substituted for temporal averages when studying their behavior in space and time. In this work we show that this property can be used to identify those regions of parameter space which are stationary when applied to the seismicity of two naturally-occurring earthquake fault networks. We apply this measure to one particular seismicity-based forecasting tool, the Pattern Informatics index (Tiampo et al., Europhys. Lett. 60, 481-487, 2002; Rundle et al., Proc. National Acad. Sci., U.S.A., Suppl. 1, 99, 2463, 2002), in order to test the hypothesis that the identification of ergodic regions can be used to improve and optimize forecasts that rely on historic seismicity catalogs. We also apply the same measure to synthetic catalogs in order to better understand the physical process that affects this accuracy. We show that, in particular, ergodic regions defined by magnitude and time period provide more reliable forecasts of future events in both natural and synthetic catalogs, and that these improvements can be directly related to specific features or properties of the catalogs that impact the behavior of their spatial and temporal statistics.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, Robert</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forecasting the Locations of Future Large Earthquakes: An Analysis and Verification</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">error diagram</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecast verification</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ROC diagram</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6-7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">167</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">743-749</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The objective of this paper is to quantify the use of past seismicity to forecast the locations of future large earthquakes and introduce optimization methods for the model parameters. To achieve this the binary forecast approach is used where the surface of the Earth is divided into lA degrees A xA lA degrees cells. The cumulative Benioff strain of m a parts per thousand yen m (c) earthquakes that occurred during the training period, Delta T (tr), is used to retrospectively forecast the locations of large target earthquakes with magnitudes a parts per thousand yenm (T) during the forecast period, Delta T (for). The success of a forecast is measured in terms of hit rates (fraction of earthquakes forecast) and false alarm rates (fraction of alarms that do not forecast earthquakes). This binary forecast approach is quantified using a receiver operating characteristic diagram and an error diagram. An optimal forecast can be obtained by taking the maximum value of Pierce's skill score.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Van Aalsburg, Jordan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yikilmaz, M. Burak</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kreylos, Oliver</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, Louise H.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Interactive editing of digital fault models</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE &amp; EXPERIENCE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">data visualization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">digital fault model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">immersive virtual reality</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 25</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12, SI</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOHN WILEY &amp; SONS LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE ATRIUM, SOUTHERN GATE, CHICHESTER PO19 8SQ, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1720-1731</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We describe an application to interactively create and manipulate digital fault maps, either by tracing existing (paper) fault maps created from geological surveys, or by directly observing fault expressions and earthquake hypocenters in remote sensing data such as high-resolution (&gt;= 100k x 100k elevation postings) digital elevation models with draped color imagery. Such fault maps serve as input data to finite-element-method simulations of fault interactions, and are crucial to understand regional tectonic processes causing earthquakes, and have tentatively been used to forecast future seismic events or to predict the shaking from likely future earthquakes. This fault editor is designed for immersive virtual reality environments such as CAVEs, and presents users with visualizations of scanned 2D fault maps and textured 3D terrain models, and a set of 3D editing tools to create or manipulate faults. We close with a case study performed by one of our geologist co-authors (Yikilmaz), which evaluates the use of our fault editor in creating a detailed digital fault model of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey, one of the largest, seismically active strike-slip faults in the world. Yikilmaz, who was directly involved in program development, used our fault editor both in a CAVE and on a desktop computer, and compares it to the industry-standard software package ArcGIS. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES), Cairns, AUSTRALIA, MAY 11-16, 2008</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hayes, T. J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Large-scale numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems: illuminating the role of dilatational gravity in earthquake nucleation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE &amp; EXPERIENCE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake simulations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gravity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical modelling</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 25</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12, SI</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOHN WILEY &amp; SONS LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE ATRIUM, SOUTHERN GATE, CHICHESTER PO19 8SQ, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1644-1652</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simulated slip histories and the associated gravity changes were generated using a large-scale numerical simulation program for the San Andreas earthquake faults system, Virtual California. Statistical analysis of 55 000 years of these simulated earthquake cycles was investigated in order to study the usefulness of the dilatational gravity signal, those gravity changes due to a subsurface dilatational (or compressional) process, as a proxy for precursory stress and strain changes. Results indicate that the precursory dilatational gravity signal is dependent upon the fault orientation with respect to the tectonic loading plate velocity. This effect is interpreted as a consequence of preferential amplification of the shear stress or reduction of the normal stress, depending on the steady-state regime investigated. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES), Cairns, AUSTRALIA, MAY 11-16, 2008</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Norton, C</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, G</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parallel GeoFEST for regional faulted deformation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1604-1625</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1604</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Toya, Y.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, Hsien-Chi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern informatics approach to earthquake forecasting in 3D</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE &amp; EXPERIENCE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">effective ergodicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity rate</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 25</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12, SI</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOHN WILEY &amp; SONS LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE ATRIUM, SOUTHERN GATE, CHICHESTER PO19 8SQ, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1569-1592</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Natural seismicity is correlated across multiple spatial and temporal scales, but correlations in seismicity prior to a large earthquake are locally subtle (e.g. seismic quiescence) and often prominent in broad scale (e.g. seismic activation), resulting in local and regional seismicity patterns, e.g. a Mogi's donut. Recognizing that patterns in seismicity rate are reflecting the regional dynamics of the directly unobservable crustal stresses, the Pattern Informatics (PI) approach was introduced by Tiampo et al. and Rundle et al. in 2002. In this study, we expand the PI approach to forecasting earthquakes into the third or vertical dimension, and illustrate its further improvement in the forecasting performance through case studies of both natural and synthetic data. The PI characterizes rapidly evolving spatio-temporal seismicity patterns as angular drifts of a unit state vector in a high-dimensional correlation space, and systematically identifies anomalous shifts in seismic activity with respect to the regional background. 3D PI analysis is particularly advantageous over 2D analysis in resolving vertically overlapped seismicity anomalies in a highly complex tectonic environment. Case studies will help to illustrate some important properties of the PI forecasting tool. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES), Cairns, AUSTRALIA, MAY 11-16, 2008</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Proceedings of the 6th ACES Symposium, May 11-16, 2008, Cairns, Australia: Introduction to the Special Issue</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE &amp; EXPERIENCE</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 25</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12, SI</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1517-1519</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, ME</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gao, X</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pallickara, SL</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Guo, Z</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Quakesim portal and services: new approaches to science gateway development techniques</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">08/2010</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1732-1749</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></issue><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1732</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yoder, M. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">169-176</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">For the purposes of this study, an interval is the elapsed time between two earthquakes in a designated region; the minimum magnitude for the earthquakes is prescribed. A record-breaking interval is one that is longer (or shorter) than preceding intervals; a starting time must be specified. We consider global earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 and show that the record-breaking intervals are well estimated by a Poissonian (random) theory. We also consider the aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and show that the record-breaking intervals are approximated by very different statistics. In both cases, we calculate the number of record-breaking intervals (n(rb)) and the record-breaking interval durations delta t(rb) as a function of `natural time', the number of elapsed events. We also calculate the ratio of record-breaking long intervals to record-breaking short intervals as a function of time, r(t), which is suggested to be sensitive to trends in noisy time series data. Our data indicate a possible precursory signal to large earthquakes that is consistent with accelerated moment release (AMR) theory.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Van Aalsburg, Jordan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Newman, William I.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Record-Breaking Earthquakes</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 1</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PLAZA PROFESSIONAL BLDG, SUITE 201, EL CERRITO, CA 94530 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">100</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1800-1805</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A record-breaking earthquake has a larger magnitude than any previous earthquake in the study region; a starting date and minimum magnitude must be specified. The first earthquake to satisfy this condition is, by definition, a record-breaking earthquake. The next record-breaking earthquake has a larger magnitude than the first and so forth. In this article we utilize the global Centroid Moment Tensor Project (CMT) catalog for the years 1977 to 2006. We consider earthquakes with moment magnitudes greater than 5.5. We determine the number of record-breaking earthquakes n(rb) during 15 specified two-year intervals. We then average the nrb at specified subintervals of time. We compare the results with the predictions for a random independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) process. The expected number of record-breaking earthquakes nrb in a specified period is independent of the statistical distribution of magnitudes. Good statistical agreement between the observations and the predictions is obtained. We carry out the same process for the magnitudes of the record-breaking earthquakes. We again compare the results with the predictions for a random (i.i.d.) process and find good agreement. For our analyses to be valid, it is necessary that the global earthquakes occur randomly, that is, they are not correlated. Thus, aftershocks and foreshocks will be sources of error. Studies of record-breaking temperatures have shown a sensitivity to global warming. A future direction for research is to apply the approach used here to regional earthquake catalogs. Aftershocks are expected to strongly influence the results.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Van Aalsburg, Jordan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, Lisa B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, Paul B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, Gleb</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, Jose</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">California seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake hazard</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">8-9</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">167</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">967-977</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed ``model steering{''}. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M &gt; 6.5 and M &gt; 7.0 earthquakes in California.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yikilmaz, M. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, LH</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Virtual California earthquake simulations: simple models and their application to an observed sequence of earthquakes</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake interaction</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting and prediction</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">180</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">734-742</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Numerical simulations are routinely used for weather forecasting. It is clearly desirable to develop simulation models for regional seismicity. One model that has been developed for the purpose is the Virtual California (VC) simulation. In order to better understand the behaviour of seismicity simulations, we apply VC to three relatively simple problems involving a straight strike-slip fault. In problem I, we divide the fault into two segments with different mean earthquake interval times. In problem II, we add a central strong (asperity) segment and in problem III we change this to a weak central segment. In all cases we observe limit cycle behaviour with a wide range of periods. We also show that the historical sequence of 13 great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, Japan, exhibits a limit-cycle behaviour very similar to our asperity model.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, MT</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, RA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, LH</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Analysis of emergent fault element behavior in Virtual California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9999</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1532</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Al-Ghanmi, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, L</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Understanding earthquake fault systems using QuakeSim analysis and data assimilation tools</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE Aerospace Conference</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Big Sky, Montana</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Samsonov, S. V.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Application of DInSAR-GPS optimization for derivation of three-dimensional surface motion of the southern California region along the San Andreas fault</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTERS &amp; GEOSCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">InSAR</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">San Andreas fault creep</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAY</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">34</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">503-514</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We present here a methodology that allows the combination of GPS and Differential InSAR data for the calculation of continuous three-dimensional (3D) high-resolution velocity maps with corresponding errors. It is based on analytic minimization of the Gibbs energy function, which is possible in the case when neighborhood pixels of the velocity maps are considered independent. By joining scalar DInSAR data and vector GPS data, the technique allows us to achieve significant improvement in accuracy in the components of the velocity vector in comparison with the GPS data alone. In the accompanying example, the method is used for the investigation of the creep motion of the southern San Andreas fault around the Salton Sea region. The velocity maps are calculated for two time periods (1992-1998 and 1997-2001) and also for 3D and 2D cases. The preliminary analysis of the optimized data suggests that creep on the San Andreas fault in this region is time-dependent. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ho, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rui Wang</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chu, E.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Isaac Kwan</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A collaborative sensor grids framework</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Collaborative Technologies and Systems, 2008. CTS 2008. International Symposium on</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">collaborative sensor grid framework</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">distributed sensor</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">grid computing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">robot-based customizable application</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">wireless sensor networks</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">may</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">29 -38</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Wu, Yi-Hsuan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Detecting precursory earthquake migration patterns using the pattern informatics method</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT 8</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">19</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">35</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this paper we analyze the evolution of seismic activity using a dynamic modification of the pattern informatics method. This method identifies locations that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity on PI maps. By investigating the evolution of hotspot configurations on the PI map and calculating the distance between hotspots and the epicenter of the impending large earthquake, a migrating pattern of (increasing or decreasing) precursory change in seismicity is revealed. We find that hotspots on the PI map appear increasingly closer to the epicenter as the time of the forthcoming earthquake is approached, implying the existence of an earthquake preparation process. The migration pattern and associated decreasing distance is confirmed by a stochastic test, and therefore we conclude that a preparation process prior to large earthquakes can be detected.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abaimov, S. G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Goltz, C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Newman, W. I.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes: Recurrence and interoccurrence times</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">interoccurrence and recurrence statistics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Weibull distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">165</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">777-795</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year ``Virtual California{''} simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hayes, T. J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A general method for calculating co-seismic gravity changes in complex fault systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTERS &amp; GEOSCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alaska</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">California</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fault network</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Time-variable gravity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOV</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">34</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1541-1549</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A general method for calculating the total, dilatational, and free-air gravity for fault systems with arbitrary geometry, slip motion, and number of fault segments is presented. The technique uses a Green's function approach for a fault buried within an elastic half-space with an underlying driver plate forcing the system. The method is easily adapted to investigate a wide range of geophysical applications and is provided as a suite of Fortran90 routines. The Joshua Tree-Landers-Hector Mine sequence is examined and shows remarkable correlation of epicentres with dilatational gravity highs. We also demonstrate the use of the method for large thrusting events, using the Alaska Good Friday earthquake of 1964 as an example. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jay Parker</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, Gregory</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Norton, Charles</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zuffada, Cinzia</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, Margaret</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lou, John</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geophysical finite-element simulation tool (GeoFEST): Algorithms and validation for quasistatic regional faulted crust problems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">165</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">497-521</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GeoFEST (Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool) is a two- and three-dimensional finite element software package for the modeling of solid stress and strain in geophysical and other continuum domain applications. It is one of the featured high-performance applications of the NASA QuakeSim project. The program is targeted to be compiled and run on UNIX systems, and is running on diverse systems including sequential and message-passing parallel systems. Solution to the elliptical partial differential equations is obtained by finite element basis sampling, resulting in a sparse linear system primarily solved by conjugate gradient iteration to a tolerance level; on sequential systems a Crout factorization for the direct inversion of the linear system is also supported. The physics models supported include isotropic linear elasticity and both Newtonian and power-law viscoelasticity, via implicit quasi-static time stepping. In addition to triangular, quadrilateral, tetrahedral and hexahedral continuum elements, GeoFEST supports split-node faulting, body forces, and surface tractions. This software and related mesh refinement strategies have been validated on a variety of test cases with rigorous comparison to analytical solutions. These include a box-shaped domain with imposed motion on one surface, a pair of strike slip faults in stepover arrangement, and two community-agreed benchmark cases: a strike slip fault in an enclosing box, and a quarter-domain circular fault problem. Scientific applications of the code include the modeling of static and transient co- and post-seismic earth deformation, Earth response to glacial, atmospheric and hydrological loading, and other scenarios involving the bulk deformation of geologic media.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hayes, T. J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A gravity gradient method for characterizing the post-seismic deformation field for a finite fault</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">and prediction</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquarke interaction</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical solutions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic cycle</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">time variable gravity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">173</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">802-805</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gravity gradients are an effective method for delineating the extent of subsurface density anomalies. The change in subsurface density contrasts due to the seismic deformation gives rise to detectable gravity changes via the dilatational gravity signal or Bouguer anomaly. Solutions for the corresponding gravity gradients of these signals are developed for a vertical strike-slip fault. Gravity gradient solutions exhibit similar spatial distributions as those calculated for Coulomb stress changes, reflecting their physical relationship to the stress changes. The signals' magnitudes, of the order of 10(-4) E, are beyond the resolution of typical exploration instruments. Improvements to Superconducting Gravity Gradiometers are necessary for gravity gradients to be used as a viable method for the observation of the stress field changes over large spatial scales.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Arjona, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Diaz, J. I.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">On the Mathematical Analysis of an Elastic-gravitational Layered Earth Model for Magmatic Intrusion: The Stationary Case</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">displacement</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elastic-gravitational Earth model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gravity changes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">weak solution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">8</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">165</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1465-1490</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In the early eighties Rundle (1980, 1981a,b, 1982) developed the techniques needed for calculations of displacements and gravity changes due to internal sources of strain in layered linear elastic-gravitational media. The approximation of the solution for the half space was obtained by using the propagator matrix technique. The Earth model considered is elastic-gravitational, composed of several homogeneous layers overlying a bottom half space. Two dislocation sources can be considered, representing magma intrusions and faults. In recent decades theoretical and computational extensions of that model have been developed by Rundle and co-workers (e.g., Fernandez and Rundle, 1994a,b; Fernandez et al., 1997, 2005a; Tiampo et al., 2004; Charco et al., 2006, 2007a,b). The source can be located at any depth in the media. In this work we prove that the perturbed equations representing the elastic-gravitational deformation problem, with the natural boundary and transmission conditions, leads to a well-posed problem even for varied domains and general data. We present constructive proof of the existence and we show the uniqueness and the continuous dependence with respect to the data of weak solutions of the coupled elastic-gravitational field equations.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Xia, Junchao</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gould, Harvey</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Near-mean-field behavior in the generalized Burridge-Knopoff earthquake model with variable-range stress transfer</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW E</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3, Part 1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">77</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simple models of earthquake faults are important for understanding the mechanisms for their observed behavior in nature, such as Gutenberg- Richter scaling. Because of the importance of long- range interactions in an elastic medium, we generalize the Burridge- Knopoff slider- block model to include variable range stress transfer. We find that the Burridge- Knopoff model with long- range stress transfer exhibits qualitatively different behavior than the corresponding long- range cellular automata models and the usual Burridge- Knopoff model with nearest- neighbor stress transfer, depending on how quickly the friction force weakens with increasing velocity. Extensive simulations of quasiperiodic characteristic events, mode- switching phenomena, ergodicity, and waiting- time distributions are also discussed. Our results are consistent with the existence of a mean- field critical point and have important implications for our understanding of earthquakes and other driven dissipative systems.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Wu, Yi-Hsuan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Precursory Seismic Activation of the Pingtung (Taiwan) Offshore Doublet Earthquakes on 26 December 2006: A Pattern Informatics Analysis</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pingtung offshore doublet earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Precursory phenomena</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Seismicity changes</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CHINESE GEOSCIENCE UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 23-59, TAIPEI 10764, TAIWAN</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">19</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">743-749</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We report the retrospective analyses of frequency-magnitude distributions (FMD) and pattern informatics (PI) for the Pingtung offshore doublet earthquakes having magnitudes 6.7 and 6.4. The frequency-magnitude distributions of earthquakes that occurred in the study area preceding the Pingtung doublets demonstrate the activation of moderate events since March 2004, about three years before the Pingtung doublets. In addition, in the calculated PI map, the hypocentral area of the doublets exhibits the signatures of anomalous activity associated with the precursory seismic activation. Our study therefore suggests that, by inspecting temporal variations in the frequency-magnitude distributions of earthquakes, together with the hotspot locations with intense seismicity changes in the PI map, it is possible to shed light oil the relevant preparation processes of the forthcoming large earthquakes.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Al-Ghanmi, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, L</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Brooks, W</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim: Efficient Modeling of Sensor Web Data in a Web Services Environment</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE Aerospace Conference</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Big Sky, Montana</style></pub-location><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">978-1-4244-1487-1</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, Marlon E.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, Geoffrey C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aktas, Mehmet S.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aydin, Galip</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gadgil, Harshawardhan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Qi, Zhigang</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sayar, Ahmet</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Weatherley, Dion K.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Weinstein, Stuart A.</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The QuakeSim Project: Web Services for Managing Geophysical Data and Applications</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&amp;lt;b&amp;gt;Earthquakes&amp;lt;/b&amp;gt;: Simulations, Sources and &amp;lt;b&amp;gt;Tsunamis&amp;lt;/b&amp;gt;</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pageoph Topical Volumes</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8757-0_11</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Birkhäuser Basel</style></publisher><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">635-651</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">978-3-7643-8757-0</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10.1007/978-3-7643-8757-0_11</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, ME</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aydin, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zhigang, Qi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, JW</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, R</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim: Web Services, Portals, and Infrastructure for Geophysics </style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE Aerospace Conference</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Big Sky, Montana</style></pub-location><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">978-1-4244-1487-1</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A review of earthquake statistics: Fault and seismicity-based models, ETAS and BASS</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">165</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1003-1024</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Bath's law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori's law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori's law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Review</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Self-similar branching of aftershock sequences</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">aftershocks</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">branching</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">epidemic-type models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">hazard assessment</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">scaling</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 1</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">387</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">933-943</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this paper we propose a branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model for seismicity. We suggest that the BASS model is a preferred alternative to the widely studied epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from the statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Bath's law for the scaling relation of aftershocks relative to the magnitude of the seed earthquake. Omori's law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori's law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Since the BASS model is specified by the four scaling relations, it is fully self-similar. This is not the case for ETAS. We also give a deterministic version of BASS and show that it satisfies Tokunaga side-branching statistics in a similar way to diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA). (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bowman, David D.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Colella, Harmony</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The stress accumulation method and the pattern informatics index: Complementary approaches to earthquake forecasting</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic hazard</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stress change</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">165</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">693-709</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this work, we provide a joint study of the stress accumulation method (SAM) (KING and BOWMAN, 2003) and the Pattern Informatics (PI) index (TIAMPO et al., 2002b). We examine the theoretical underpinnings for the similarities between the two techniques, as well as the differences in their application. The SAM technique is employed to determine likely mechanisms for smaller areas of increased probability identified by the PI index, while a modified version of the PI index can be used to locate regions where the smaller magnitude associated with the anomaly is below the resolution of the SAM. Finally, we present three case studies from different regions of the San Andreas fault system to illustrate both their complementary nature, as well as the advantages to combining them in one synthesized analysis.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BASS, an alternative to ETAS</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN 21</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">34</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The epidemic type aftershock sequence ( ETAS) model has been widely used to model the statistics of seismicity. An essential feature of the ETAS model is the concept of generations of aftershocks. A mainshock has primary aftershocks, the primary aftershocks have secondary aftershocks, and so forth. In this paper, we introduce the branching aftershock sequence ( BASS) model as an alternative to ETAS. The BASS model is fully self-similar whereas the ETAS model is not. Furthermore, the ETAS model requires the specification of branching (parent-daughter) ratios, while the BASS model instead utilizes Bath's law. We also show that the branching statistics in the BASS model are identical to the self-similar Tokunaga statistics of drainage networks.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>10</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nacar, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Building QuakeSim portlets with GTLAB</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grid Computing Environments (GCE) workshop</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11/2007</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://hdl.handle.net/1850/7780</style></url></web-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Reno, NV</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tralli, David M.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Blom, Ronald G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fielding, Eric J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Evans, Diane L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Conceptual case for assimilating interferometric synthetic aperture radar data into the HAZUS-MH earthquake module</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HAZUS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">remote sensing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic hazard analysis</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6, Part 1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">45</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1595-1604</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The study of the Earth as a system is being adopted widely by geoscientists. Numerical models and simulations are providing the capability to rapidly test hypotheses and make forecasts of complex geophysical behavior. International efforts are seeking to integrate existing and emerging Earth observation systems into a global network, with enhanced data distribution, models, and decision support tools. Remote sensing is poised to fulfill the increasing need for a synoptic framework. However, the desire to improve the connection between scientific research and societal benefits has not been matched with resources and tools required to bridge the gap between research and applications. Natural hazards research and disaster management are a prime example. Here, we present a conceptual case for how interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data could make a definitive contribution to understanding earthquake processes while simultaneously supporting policy- and decision-making. InSAR measurements derived from time series of radar observations from Earth orbit uniquely can provide geographically comprehensive maps of surface deformation. Observing system simulations are suggested to evaluate the potential contributions of a future system. Simulations would adopt an open seismic hazard analysis (SHA) framework, OpenSHA, recognizing the need for more physics-based modeling and computational infrastructure. SHA is employed by the HAZUS-MH earthquake module to estimate losses. InSAR measurements of strain accumulation would provide event magnitude recurrence bounds for probabilistic SHA, while coseismic InSAR measurements would add constraints on fault rupture models for deterministic approaches. Moreover, interferograms would be incorporated graphically as proxy seismic risk maps for planning and mitigation.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, Hsien-Chi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Critical point theory of earthquakes: Observation of correlated and cooperative behavior on earthquake fault systems (vol 33, art no L18302, 2006)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAR 9</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">34</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Correction</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martins, J. S. Sa</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ferguson, C. D.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ergodicity in natural earthquake fault networks</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW E</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6, Part 2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMERICAN PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">75</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Numerical simulations have shown that certain driven nonlinear systems can be characterized by mean-field statistical properties often associated with ergodic dynamics {[}C. D. Ferguson, W. Klein, and J. B. Rundle, Phys. Rev. E 60, 1359 (1999); D. Egolf, Science 287, 101 (2000)]. These driven mean-field threshold systems feature long-range interactions and can be treated as equilibriumlike systems with statistically stationary dynamics over long time intervals. Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system, a natural driven threshold system, by means of the Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) fluctuation metric developed in the study of diffusive systems {[}K. F. Tiampo, J. B. Rundle, W. Klein, J. S. Sa Martins, and C. D. Ferguson, Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501 (2003)]. We analyze the seismicity of three naturally occurring earthquake fault networks from a variety of tectonic settings in an attempt to investigate the range of applicability of effective ergodicity, using the TM metric and other related statistics. Results suggest that, once variations in the catalog data resulting from technical and network issues are accounted for, all of these natural earthquake systems display stationary periods of metastable equilibrium and effective ergodicity that are disrupted by large events. We conclude that a constant rate of events is an important prerequisite for these periods of punctuated ergodicity and that, while the level of temporal variability in the spatial statistics is the controlling factor in the ergodic behavior of seismic networks, no single statistic is sufficient to ensure quantification of ergodicity. Ergodicity in this application not only requires that the system be stationary for these networks at the applicable spatial and temporal scales, but also implies that they are in a state of metastable equilibrium, one in which the ensemble averages can be substituted for temporal averages in studying their spatiotemporal evolution.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Van Aalsburg, Jordan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, Lisa B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, Gleb</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, Paul. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A feasibility study of data assimilation in numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICS OF THE EARTH AND PLANETARY INTERIORS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">data assimilation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical simulations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">virtual california</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG 15</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AGU</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">149-162</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Topologically realistic simulations of earthquake faults systems have been constructed to understand the physics of interacting earthquake fault systems. We focus on one of these models, a simulation called Virtual California, that represents a model for the strike-slip fault system in California. In weather forecasting, current and past observations are routinely extrapolated forward to forecast future weather. The question addressed in this paper is whether a similar application of numerical simulations can be used in earthquake forecasting. Present simulation models are discussed and their ability to successfully generate earthquake recurrence statistics is demonstrated. An important question relates to how paleoseismic data can be used to constrain simulations, and whether these constrained simulations provide improved forecasts of future earthquakes. Here, we show first results from a consideration of these issues using a method of ``datascoring{''}. The data are divided into ``training intervals{''} and ``testing intervals{''}. In the training intervals. the time history of paleoseismic data are used to evaluate space-time windows of simulations. Earthquakes following high-scoring space-time windows in the simulations are then used as a basis for developing waiting time statistics and used to forecast data in the testing intervals. In our present method, we focus on the problem of determining the timing of future earthquakes having magnitude m &gt; 7. Our preliminary conclusion is that the amount of paleoseismic data currently available does not as yet improve the waiting time statistics to a level significantly beyond a random (temporal) predictor. However, this conclusion is based on a set of studies that are not extensive, so further investigations may well reveal important new avenues. In particular, it may be that the true value of this approach lies in defining the probable spatial locations of future earthquakes, rather than their timing. Published by Elsevier B.V.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AGU Western Pacific Geophysical Meeting, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 24-28, 2006</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">John Rundle</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geoffrey Fox</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dennis McLeod</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, Lisa</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tullis, Terry</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marlon Pierce</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jay Parker</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, Greg</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Robert Granat</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, Margaret</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, Xiang-Chu</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, Peter</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsu’ura, Mitsuhiro</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational Earthquake Physics: Simulations, Analysis and Infrastructure, Part II</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pageoph Topical Volumes</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8131-8_2</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Birkhäuser Basel</style></publisher><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2263-2279</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">978-3-7643-8131-8</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10.1007/978-3-7643-8131-8_2</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Norton, C</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, L</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Brooks, W</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tullis, T</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim: Enabling Model Interactions in Solid Earth Science Sensor Webs</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE Aerospace Conference</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Big Sky, Montana</style></pub-location><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-4244-0525-4</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Norton, C</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Brooks, W</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tullis, T</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim: Enabling Model Interactions in Solid Earth Science Sensor Webs</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NASA Science Technology Conference (NSTC)</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">University of Maryland</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abaimov, S. G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COPERNICUS PUBLICATIONS</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAX-PLANCK-STR 13, KATHLENBURG-LINDAU, 37191, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">14</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">455-464</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">{The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness alpha of the system</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abaimov, S. G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recurrence-time and frequency-slip statistics of slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">creep</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">recurrence statistics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Weibull distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">170</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1289-1299</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">An important question in seismic hazard assessments is the frequency-size and recurrence interval statistics at a point on a fault. Does a point on a fault obey the same statistics as earthquakes in a region do ? This is a difficult question to answer because the number of repetitive earthquakes on a particular fault that have been observed is small. In order to overcome this difficulty we consider slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California. Sequences of up to 100 events are obtained from creepmeter records. We compare the statistical distribution of recurrence times with the Brownian passage-time, lognormal, and Weibull distributions and using goodness-of-fit tests find that the Weibull is the preferred distribution. We also consider the frequency-amplitude distribution of slip events. We find that the data clearly do not obey a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Instead there is a uniform distribution of event sizes for a large fraction of events.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JAN-FEB</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PLAZA PROFESSIONAL BLDG, SUITE 201, EL CERRITO, CA 94530 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">78</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">87-93</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Charco, Maria</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, Jose</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Luzon, Francisco</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Some insights into topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in modelling ground deformation and gravity changes in active volcanic areas</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">displacement</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gravity change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">self-gravitation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">topography</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Inter Assoc Geodesy; Spanish Minist Educ &amp; Sci; Spanish Council Sci Res; Cabildo Insular de Lanzarote</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">164</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">865-878</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation and gravity changes depend on such effects.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Workshop on Deformation and Gravity Change - Indicators of Isostasy, Tectonics, Volcanism and Climate Change, Lanzarote, SPAIN, MAR 01-04, 2005</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gould, Harvey</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gulbahce, Natali</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Structure of fluctuations near mean-field critical points and spinodals and its implication for physical processes</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW E</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3, Part 1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">75</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We analyze the structure of fluctuations near critical points and spinodals in mean-field and near-mean-field systems. Unlike systems that are non-mean-field, for which a fluctuation can be represented by a single cluster in a properly chosen percolation model, a fluctuation in mean-field and near-mean-field systems consists of a large number of clusters, which we term fundamental clusters. The structure of the latter and the way that they form fluctuations has important physical consequences for phenomena as diverse as nucleation in supercooled liquids, spinodal decomposition and continuous ordering, and the statistical distribution of earthquakes. The effects due to the fundamental clusters implies that they are physical objects and not only mathematical constructs.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nanjo, K. Z.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, C. -C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TECTONOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake prediction</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">patterns</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic quiescence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT 2</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Geosci Union</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">424</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">351-366</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space-time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">General Assembly of the European-Geosciences-Union on Dynamics of Seismicity Patterns and Earthquake Triggering, Vienna, AUSTRIA, ,</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, Xiang-Chu</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, Peter</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsuura, Mitsuhiro</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational earthquake physics - PART I: Introduction</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1737-1740</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, Xiang-Chu</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, Peter</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational earthquake physics - PART II: Introduction</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2259-2261</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Van Aalsburg, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TECTONOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">correlation length</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">multifractal scaling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">percolation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">radius of gyration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">two-point correlation function</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 2</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">413</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">53-62</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more Speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration Of Clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, Hsien-Chi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Critical point theory of earthquakes: Observation of correlated and cooperative behavior on earthquake fault systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP 16</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">33</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The critical point theory for earthquakes was originally proposed to explain the scaling relations observed in earthquakes, including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation and the Omori's law for aftershocks. In this model, main shocks, their foreshocks and aftershocks are all associated with the formation of a correlated, cooperative spatial region with high stress. Until now, only indirect evidence of the existence of these correlated regions has been reported. Here in this paper we present observations and analyses that allow us to directly map the high stress, spatially correlated regions preceding four major earthquakes, i.e. the 1992 Landers ( California), 1995 Kobe ( Japan), 1999 Chi-Chi ( Taiwan) and 1999 Hector Mine ( California) earthquakes. We therefore conclude that the locations and extent of large main shocks and their immediate aftershocks can be determined from seismicity data taken prior to the main shocks, and provide additional evidence in support of the critical point theory for earthquakes.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Robert Granat</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Detecting regional events via statistical analysis of geodetic networks</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">annealing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geodesy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">hidden Markov models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">segmentation</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2497-2512</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We present an application of hidden Markov models (HMMs) to analysis of geodetic time series in Southern California. Our model-fitting method uses a regularized version of the deterministic annealing expectation-maximization algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust and of high quality. Using the fitted models, we segment the daily displacement time series collected by 127 stations of the Southern California Integrated Geodetic Network (SCIGN) over a two-year period. Segmentations of the series are based on statistical changes as identified by the trained HMMs. We look for correlations in state changes across multiple stations that indicate region-wide activity. We find that although in one case a strong seismic event was associated with a spike in station correlations, in all other cases in the study, time period strong correlations were not associated with any seismic event. This indicates that the method was able to identify more subtle signals associated with aseismic events or long-range interactions between smaller events.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4th ACES Workshop 2004, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 09-14, 2004</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forecasting rupture dimension using the pattern informatics technique</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TECTONOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake physics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic hazard</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stress</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT 2</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Geosci Union</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">424</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">367-376</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Pattern Informatics (P?I) technique {[}Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B., McGinnis, S., Gross, S., Klein, W., 2002. Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems, Europhys. Lett., 60, 481-487] is founded on the premise that changes in the seismicity rate are a proxy for changes in the underlying stress. This new approach to the study of seismicity quantifies its local and regional space-time patterns and identifies regions of local quiescence or activation. Here we use a modification of the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes in California in an attempt to objectively quantify the rupture zones of these upcoming events. We show that this method can be used to forecast the size and magnitude of future earthquakes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">General Assembly of the European-Geosciences-Union on Dynamics of Seismicity Patterns and Earthquake Triggering, Vienna, AUSTRIA, ,</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, Chien-chih</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, Hsien-Chi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nanjo, Kazuyoshi Z.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">From tornadoes to earthquakes: Forecast verification for binary events applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chi-Chi earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecast</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CHINESE GEOSCIENCE UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 23-59, TAIPEI 10764, TAIWAN</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">503-516</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forecast verification procedures for statistical events with binary outcomes typically rely on the use of contingency tables and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams. Originally developed for the statistical evaluation of tornado forecasts on a county-by-county basis, these methods can be adapted to the evaluation of competing earthquake forecasts. Here we apply these methods retrospectively to two forecasts for the M 7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. We show that a previously proposed forecast method that is based on evaluating changes in seismic intensity on a regional basis is superior to a forecast based only on the magnitude of seismic intensity in the same region. Our results confirm earlier suggestions that the earthquake preparation process for events such as the Chi-Chi earthquake involves anomalous activation or quiescence, and that signatures of these processes can be detected in seismicity data using appropriate methods.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hayes, T. J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gravity changes from a stress evolution earthquake simulation of California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP 29</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">B9</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">111</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The gravity signal contains information regarding changes in density at all depths and can be used as a proxy for the strain accumulation in fault networks. A stress evolution time-dependent model was used to create simulated slip histories over the San Andreas Fault network in California. Using a linear sum of the gravity signals from each fault segment in the model, via coseismic gravity Green's functions, a time-dependent gravity model was created. The steady state gravity from the long-term plate motion generates a signal over 5 years with magnitudes of +/-similar to 2 mu Gal; the current limit of portable instrument observations. Moderate to large events generate signal magnitudes in the range of similar to 10 to similar to 80 mu Gal, well within the range of ground-based observations. The complex fault network geometry of California significantly affects the spatial extent of the gravity signal from the three events studied.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aktas, Mehmet</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aydin, Galip</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geoffrey Fox</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Robert Granat</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, Lisa</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, Greg</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dennis McLeod</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pallickara, Shrideep</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jay Parker</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marlon Pierce</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">John Rundle</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sayar, Ahmet</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tullis, Terry</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">iSERVO: Implementing the International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory by Integrating Computational Grid and Geographical Information Web Services</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pure and Applied Geophysics</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-006-0137-8</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Birkhäuser Basel</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2281-2296</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10.1007/s00024-006-0137-8</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TECTONOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">complex principal components</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 2</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">413</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">87-91</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events oil the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern dynamics, pattern hierarchies, and forecasting in complex multi-scale earth systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAX-PLANCK-STR 13, 37191 KATLENBURG-LINDAU, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">789-796</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Catastrophic disasters afflicting human society are often triggered by tsunamis, earthquakes, widespread flooding, and weather and climate events. As human populations increasingly move into geographic areas affected by these earth system hazards, forecasting the onset of these large and damaging events has become increasingly urgent. In this paper we consider the fundamental problem of forecasting in complex multi-scale earth systems when the basic dynamical variables are either unobservable or incompletely observed. In such cases, the forecaster must rely on incompletely determined, but ``tunable{''} models to interpret observable space-time patterns of events. The sequence of observable patterns constitute an apparent pattern dynamics, which is related to the underlying but hidden dynamics by a complex dimensional reduction process. As an example, we examine the problem of earthquakes, which must utilize current and past observations of observables such as seismicity and surface strain to produce forecasts of future activity. We show that numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems are needed in order to relate the fundamentally unobservable nonlinear dynamics to the readily observable pattern dynamics. We also show that the space-time patterns produced by the simulations lead to a scale-invariant hierarchy of patterns, similar to other nonlinear systems. We point out that a similar program of simulations has been very successful in weather forecasting, in which current and past observations of weather patterns are routinely extrapolated forward in time via numerical simulations in order to forecast future weather patterns.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nanjo, K. Z.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1995 Kobe earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004 Niigata earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecast</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2417-2432</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m &gt;= 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m &gt;= 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 &lt;= m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4th ACES Workshop 2004, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 09-14, 2004</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Premonitory seismicity changes prior to the Parkfield and Coalinga earthquakes in southern California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TECTONOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Coalinga earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake fault systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parkfield</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity rate</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stress triggering</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 2</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">413</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">77-86</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this work, we apply the Pattern Informatics technique for evaluating one surface expression of the underlying stress field, the seismicity, in order to study the Parkfield-Coalinga interaction over the years preceding the 1983 Coalinga earthquake. We find that significant anomalous seismicity changes occur during the mid-1970s in this region prior to the Coalinga earthquake that illustrate a reduction in the probability of ail event at Parkfield, while the probability of an event at Coalinga is seen to increase. This suggests that the one event did not trigger or hinder the other, rather that the dynamics of the earthquake system are a function of stress field changes on a larger spatial and temporal scale. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">John Rundle</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geoffrey Fox</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dennis McLeod</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, Lisa</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tullis, Terry</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marlon Pierce</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jay Parker</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, Greg</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Robert Granat</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, Margaret</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">deformation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Web Services</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2263-2279</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth Science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear, resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4th ACES Workshop 2004, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 09-14, 2004</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Charco, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Luzon, F</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">On the relative importance of self-gravitation and elasticity in modeling volcanic ground deformation and gravity changes</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAR 4</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">B3</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">111</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">{[}1] Elastic half-space models, widely used to interpret displacements and gravity data in active volcanic areas, usually compute the displacement response to dilatational sources that simulate a change in pressure of the magma chamber. Elastic-gravitational models allow the computation of gravity, deformation, and gravitational potential changes due to pressurized magma cavities and intruding masses together. This type of model takes into account the mass interaction with the self-gravitation of the Earth through coupling between model equations. We perform a dimensional analysis of the elastic-gravitational model estimating the magnitude of intrusion mass and coupling effects at the space scale associated with volcano monitoring. We show that the intrusion mass cannot be neglected in the interpretation of gravity changes while displacements are primarily caused by pressurization. Therefore the intrusion of mass, together with the associated pressurization of the magma chamber, produces distinctive changes in gravity that could be used to interpret gravity changes without ground deformation and vice versa, depending on what type of source plays the main role in the intrusion process. Theoretical experiments indicate that mass and self-gravitation could produce changes in the magnitude and pattern of predicted gravity that may be above microgravity accuracy. Application of the elastic-gravitational model to interpret geodetic precursors observed at Mayon volcano ( Philippines) prior to the eruption of 2001 shows that inversions increase in precision by using this model. Therefore our elastic-gravitational model is a refinement of purely elastic models and can better interpret gravity and deformation changes in active volcanic zones.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Charco, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A revision of the FORTRAN codes GRAVW to compute deformation produced by a point magma intrusion in elastic-gravitational layered earth models</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTERS &amp; GEOSCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">32</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">275-281</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, Robert</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Scaling properties of the Parkfield aftershock sequence</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4, Part b, S</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PLAZA PROFESSIONAL BLDG, SUITE 201, EL CERRITO, CA 94530 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">96</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">S376-S384</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aftershock sequences present a unique opportunity to study the physics of earthquakes. Important questions concern the fundamental origin of three widely applicable scaling laws: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, (2) Omori's law for aftershock decay rates, and (3) Bath's law for the difference between the magnitude of the largest aftershock and a mainshock. The high-resolution Parkfield seismic network provided the opportunity for detailed studies of the aftershock sequence following the 28 September 2004, M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. In this article it is shown that aftershocks satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation only for relatively large times after the mainshock. There is a systematic time delay for the establishment of this scaling law. The temporal evolution of the rates of occurrence of aftershocks is quantified using the generalized Omori's law. This scaling law contains two characteristic times c and c. The analysis suggests that the parameter c plays the role of a characteristic time for the establishment of GutenbergRichter scaling. This time increases systematically with a decreasing lower magnitude cutoff. The systematic time delay is attributed to a cascade of energy from long wavelengths to short wavelengths. The parameterr is a measure of the average time until the first aftershock occurs. We find that tau slightly varies with the lower magnitude cutoff of the sequence. We also note that the largest aftershock inferred from an extrapolation of Gutenberg-Richter scaling, M 5.0, is equal to the largest observed aftershock. This scaling associated with the universal applicability of Bath's law is attributed to a constant partitioning of energy between a mainshock and its associated aftershock sequence. We also give in this article the distribution of interoccurrence times between successive aftershocks. We show that this distribution is well approximated by a nonhomogeneous Poissons process driven by the modified Omori's law. The self-consistency between interoccurrence statistics and decay rates is taken as further evidence for the applicability of our studies.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, Robert</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Scaling properties of the Parkfield aftershock sequence (vol 96, pg S376, 2006)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PLAZA PROFESSIONAL BLDG, SUITE 201, EL CERRITO, CA 94530 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">96</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2472</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Correction</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, Gleb</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, Paul B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simulation-based distributions of earthquake recurrence times on the San Andreas fault system</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PLAZA PROFESSIONAL BLDG, SUITE 201, EL CERRITO, CA 94530 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">96</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1995-2007</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes on a specified fault (or fault segment) with magnitudes greater than a specified value have a statistical distribution of recurrence times. The mean recurrence time can be related to the rate of strain accumulation and the strength of the fault. Very few faults have a recorded history of earthquakes that define a distribution well. For hazard assessment, in general, a statistical distribution of recurrence times is assumed along with parameter values. Assumed distributions include the Weibull (stretched exponential) distribution, the lognormal distribution, and the Brownian passage-time (inverse Gaussian) distribution. The distribution of earthquake waiting times is the conditional probability that an earthquake will occur at a time in the future if it has not occurred for a specified time in the past. The distribution of waiting times is very sensitive to the distribution of recurrence times. An exponential distribution of recurrence times is Poissonian, so there is no memory of the last event. The distribution of recurrence times must be thinner than the exponential if the mean waiting time is to decrease as the time since the last earthquake increases. Neither the lognormal or the Brownian passage time distribution satisfies this requirement. We use the ``Virtual California{''} model for earthquake occurrence on the San Andreas fault system to produce a synthetic distribution of earthquake recurrence times on various faults in the San Andreas system. We find that the synthetic data are well represented by Weibull distributions. We also show that the Weibull distribution follows from both damage mechanics and statistical physics.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, James R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, John B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, Donald L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, William</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, Kristy F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrea Donnellan</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Space-time clustering and correlations of major earthquakes</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC 8</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">23</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMERICAN PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">97</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that the occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Stress shadows determined from a phase dynamical measure of historic seismicity</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake physics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic hazard</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stress shadows</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2407-2416</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (TIAMPO et al., 2002) is founded on the premise that changes in the seismicity rate are a proxy for changes in the underlying stress. These stress changes are correlated over large spatial regions, and can be quantified using a phase dynamical analysis of the changes in historic seismicity rates. This new approach to the study of seismicity quantifies its local and regional space-time patterns and identifies regions of local quiescence or activation. Here we study those local changes in an attempt to objectively quantify short-term stress shadow regions. We determine that, while persistent stress shadows are detectable with this method, they do not occur uniformly throughout the spatio-temporal region.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4th ACES Workshop 2004, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 09-14, 2004</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>13</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Morein, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, L</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">TECTONOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 2</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">413</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">109-125</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">{Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space-time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake oil one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress oil other faults, thereby delaying activity oil those faults. In this paper, we describe the Current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model (or all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group oil California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations call be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the ``official{''</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Systematic procedural and sensitivity analysis of the Pattern Informatics method for forecasting large (M &gt; 5) earthquake events in Southern California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Informatics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2433-2454</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we attempt to optimize the PI approach by developing quantitative values for ``predictive goodness{''} and analyzing possible variations in the proposed procedure. In addition, we attempt to quantify the systematic dependence on the quality of the input catalog of historic data and develop methods for combining catalogs from regions of different seismic rates.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4th ACES Workshop 2004, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 09-14, 2004</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COPERNICUS PUBLICATIONS</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAX-PLANCK-STR 13, KATHLENBURG-LINDAU, 37191, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">13</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">585-593</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Virtual California: Fault model, frictional parameters, applications</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">fault Systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">simulations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">statistics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">163</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1819-1846</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Virtual California is a topologically realistic simulation of the interacting earthquake faults in California. Inputs to the model arise from field data, and typically include realistic fault system topologies, realistic long-term slip rates, and realistic frictional parameters. Outputs from the simulations include synthetic earthquake sequences and space-time patterns together with associated surface deformation and strain patterns that are similar to those seen in nature. Here we describe details of the data assimilation procedure we use to construct the fault model and to assign frictional properties. In addition, by analyzing the statistical physics of the simulations, we can show that that the frictional failure physics, which includes a simple representation of a dynamic stress intensity factor, leads to self-organization of the statistical dynamics, and produces empirical statistical distributions (probability density functions: PDFs) that characterize the activity. One type of distribution that can be constructed from empirical measurements of simulation data are PDFs for recurrence intervals on selected faults. Inputs to simulation dynamics are based on the use of time-averaged event-frequency data, and outputs include PDFs representing measurements of dynamical variability arising from fault interactions and space-time correlations. As a first step for productively using model-based methods for earthquake forecasting, we propose that simulations be used to generate the PDFs for recurrence intervals instead of the usual practice of basing the PDFs on standard forms (Gaussian, Log-Normal, Pareto, Brownian Passage Time, and so forth). Subsequent development of simulation-based methods should include model enhancement, data assimilation and data mining methods, and analysis techniques based on statistical physics.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4th ACES Workshop 2004, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA, JUL 09-14, 2004</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, CC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nanjo, K. Z.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, SC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOV 30</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">22</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">32</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Pattern Informatics algorithm, which has recently shown promising performance for earthquake forecasting in Southern California, has been used to detect the locations where precursory seismic activity occurred preceding the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Using the Pattern Informatics method as presented in this paper, the epicenter of the Chi-Chi main shock was found to exhibit signatures of anomalous activity related to the seismic activation and quiescence in the Taiwan region over a time span of about 6 years before the main shock. A strategy of making intermediate-term earthquake hazard assessment by means of Pattern Informatics is therefore proposed on the basis of retrospective analysis of the Chi-Chi earthquake.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aftershock statistics</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">aftershocks</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">critical point</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">damage mechanics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">fracture</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">power-law scaling</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6-7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">162</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1051-1076</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The statistical properties of aftershock sequences are associated with three empirical scaling relations: ( 1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, ( 2) Bath's law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock, and ( 3) the modified Omori's law for the temporal decay of aftershocks. In this paper these three laws are combined to give a relation for the aftershock decay rate that depends on only a few parameters. This result is used to study the temporal properties of aftershock sequences of several large California earthquakes. A review of different mechanisms and models of aftershocks are also given. The scale invariance of the process of stress transfer caused by a main shock and the heterogeneous medium in which aftershocks occur are responsible for the occurrence of scaling laws. We suggest that the observed partitioning of energy could play a crucial role in explaining the physical origin of Bath's law. We also study the stress relaxation process in a simple model of damage mechanics and find that the rate of energy release in this model is identical to the rate of aftershock occurrence described by the modified Omori's law.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Review</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aktas, M. S.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aydin, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gadgil, H</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pallickara, S.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, ME</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sangyoon Oh</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sayar, A</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Scharber, M.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Building Sensor Filter Grids: Information Architecture for the Data Deluge</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Semantics, Knowledge and Grid, 2005. SKG '05. First International Conference on</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">data deluge</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">distributed sensors</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">distributed systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">globally distributable grid services</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">grid computing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">information architecture</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">information management</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">information retrieval</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Internet</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">knowledge management</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">sensor filter grids</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">streaming information message units</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">time-stamped information message units</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Web information retrieval</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">nov.</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holliday, J. R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nanjo, K. Z.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake forecasting and its verification</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAX-PLANCK-STR 13, 37191 KATLENBURG-LINDAU, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">965-977</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ({''}hotspots{''}) where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary-an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jentzsch, G</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">On the interpretation of vertical gravity gradients produced by magmatic intrusions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF GEODYNAMICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elastic-gravitational model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elevation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gravity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">magma intrusion</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mayon volcano</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">temporal change</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">39</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">475-492</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A method for the computation and interpretation of gravity and height changes and vertical gravity gradients produced by magmatic intrusions in a layered elastic-gravitational medium is presented. The methodology assumes a planar medium geometry, which consists of welded layers overlying a half-space. The medium is elastic and gravitating. The intrusion is treated as a point source and can be located at any depth inside the medium. The theoretical elastic-gravitational model allows the computation of the so-called geometric and orthometric vertical displacements as well as gravity changes of different types. The corresponding vertical gravity gradients can also be computed. We present several examples of theoretical computations and study different types of these geometric and orthometric gravity gradients and the information we can get from the application of the methodology described. The results presented show that the use of these gradients is a useful tool to obtain information on the dynamics of the injection processes, including the detection of new magma recharge. We show that using the elastic-gravitational deformation model we can explain non-linear gravity-height relationships that appear in volcanic areas. We also present the application of the methodology to Mayon volcano, Philippines, delineating the intrusion of new magma, consistent with the produced eruptions after the observation period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">iSERVO: The international Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTING IN SCIENCE &amp; ENGINEERING</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL-AUG</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE COMPUTER SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10662 LOS VAQUEROS CIRCLE, PO BOX 3014, LOS ALAMITOS, CA 90720-1314 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">24-26</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geoffrey Fox</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pallickara, Shrideep</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aydin, Galip</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marlon Pierce</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lucio Grandinetti</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Messaging in web service grid with applications to geographical information systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grid Computing The New Frontier of High Performance Computing</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Advances in Parallel Computing</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927545205800164</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">North-Holland</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">14</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">305 - 331</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Model for the distribution of aftershock interoccurrence times</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOV 18</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">21</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">95</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this work the distribution of interoccurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of interoccurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Baker, T</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Clayton, RW</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Real-time earthquake location using Kirchhoff reconstruction</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APR</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PLAZA PROFESSIONAL BLDG, SUITE 201, EL CERRITO, CA 94530 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">95</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">699-707</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Real-time location of earthquakes can be achieved by using direct imaging of the recorded wave field based on a Kirchhoff reconstruction method similar to that used in the migration of seismic reflection data. The standard method of event location requires the wave arrival at each sensor to be picked and associated with an event. By using direct imaging, the event is identified once in the imaged wave field. The computation is independent of the level of seismic activity and can be carried out on a typical desktop computer. The procedure has been successfully demonstrated in two and three dimensions using data from the Southern California Seismic Network (Trinet). At higher resolutions, the reconstruction method can identify finite source effects. Further work considers extending the method by implementing full elastic theory and solving for moment tensors at all locations in the mesh.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tralli, DM</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Blom, RG</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zlotnicki, V</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Evans, DL</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Satellite remote sensing of earthquake, volcano, flood, landslide and coastal inundation hazards</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ISPRS JOURNAL OF PHOTOGRAMMETRY AND REMOTE SENSING</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">decision support system (DSS)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">disaster response</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">global positioning system (GPS)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">imaging spectroscopy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">natural hazards</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">risk mitigation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">satellite remote sensing</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">59</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">185-198</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Satellite remote sensing is providing a systematic, synoptic framework for advancing scientific knowledge of the Earth as a complex system of geophysical phenomena that, directly and through interacting processes, often lead to natural hazards. Improved and integrated measurements along with numerical modeling are enabling a greater understanding of where and when a particular hazard event is most likely to occur and result in significant socioeconornic impact. Geospatial information products derived from this research increasingly are addressing the operational requirements of decision support systems used by policy makers, emergency managers and responders from international and federal to regional, state and local jurisdictions. This forms the basis for comprehensive risk assessments and better-informed mitigation planning, disaster assessment and response prioritization. Space-based geodetic measurements of the solid Earth with the Global Positioning System, for example, combined with ground-based seismological measurements, are yielding the principal data for modeling lithospheric processes and for accurately estimating the distribution of potentially damaging strong ground motions which is critical for earthquake engineering applications. Moreover, integrated with interterometric synthetic aperture radar, these measurements provide spatially continuous observations of deformation with sub-centimeter accuracy. Seismic and in situ monitoring, geodetic measurements, high-resolution digital elevation models (e.g. from InSAR, Lidar and digital photogrammetry) and imaging spectroscopy (e.g. using ASTER, MODIS and Hyperion) are contributing significantly to volcanic hazard risk assessment, with the potential to aid land use planning in developing countries where the impact of volcanic hazards to populations and lifelines is continually increasing. Remotely sensed data play an integral role in reconstructing the recent history of the land surface and in predicting hazards due to flood and landslide events. Satellite data are addressing diverse observational requirements that are imposed by the need for surface, subsurface and hydrologic characterization, including the delineation of flood and landslide zones for risk assessments. Short- and long-term sea-level change and the impact of ocean-atmosphere processes on the coastal land environment, through flooding, erosion and storm surge for example, define further requirements for hazard monitoring and mitigation planning. The continued development and application of a broad spectrum of satellite remote sensing systems and attendant data management infrastructure will contribute needed baseline and time series data, as part of an integrated Global observation strategy that includes airborne and in situ measurements of the solid Earth. Multi-hazard modeling capabilities, in turn, will result in more accurate forecasting and visualizations for improving the decision support tools and systems used by the international disaster management community. (c) 2005 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">30th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, Honolulu, HI, NOV, 2003</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aydin, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aktas, M. S.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gadgil, H</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sayar, A</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SERVOGrid Complexity Computational Environments (CCE) Integrated Performance Analysis</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Proceedings of the 6th IEEE/ACM International Workshop on Grid Computing</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GRID '05</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/GRID.2005.1542750</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE Computer Society</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Washington, DC, USA</style></pub-location><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">256–261</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">0-7803-9492-5</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Xia, JC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gould, H</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simulation of the Burridge-Knopoff model of earthquakes with variable range stress transfer</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC 9</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">24</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMERICAN PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">95</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simple models of earthquake faults are important for understanding the mechanisms for their observed behavior, such as Gutenberg-Richter scaling and the relation between large and small events, which is the basis for various forecasting methods. Although cellular automaton models have been studied extensively in the long-range stress transfer limit, this limit has not been studied for the Burridge-Knopoff model, which includes more realistic friction forces and inertia. We find that the latter model with long-range stress transfer exhibits qualitatively different behavior than both the long-range cellular automaton models and the usual Burridge-Knopoff model with nearest-neighbor springs, depending on the nature of the velocity-weakening friction force. These results have important implications for our understanding of earthquakes and other driven dissipative systems.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Li, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Malamud, BD</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, LB</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yakovlev, G.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">hazards</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Weilbull distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT 25</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">43</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NATL ACAD SCIENCES</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">102</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">15363-15367</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, LB</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gould, MM</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yun-An Chen, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sang-Soo Sung</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A Web services-based universal approach to heterogeneous fault databases</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computing in Science Engineering</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">automated data mining</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">digital simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earth-observing systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake databases</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake processes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">faulting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geologic reference models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geophysics computing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">heterogeneous fault databases</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">high-performance simulations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Internet</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">interoperable environment</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NASA</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">online front-ends</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">portals</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeTables</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Web browser-based problem-solving environment</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Web services-based portal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Web services-based universal approach</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">july-aug.</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">51 - 57</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, LB</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gould, MM</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chen, AYA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sung, SS</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, GC</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A web service's-based universal approach to heterogeneous fault databases</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTING IN SCIENCE &amp; ENGINEERING</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL-AUG</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE COMPUTER SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10662 LOS VAQUEROS CIRCLE, PO BOX 3014, LOS ALAMITOS, CA 90720-1314 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">51-57</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">QuakeSim lets scientists study earthquake behavior over single or multiple seismic cycles. The system's semantics-based database component, QuakeTables, provides global realtime accessibility to a diverse set of earthquake and fault data.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Grant, LB</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gould, MM</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assimilation of paleoseismic data for earthquake simulation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">data assimilation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">fault Systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">paleoseismology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">recurrence interval</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">San Andreas fault</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">slip rate</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2295-2306</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simulation of the complete earthquake generation process requires assimilation of observational data on long-term behavior of faults over multiple rupture cycles. Paleoseismology, the study of pre-instrumental earthquakes from geological field investigations, provides the only observations of long-term fault behavior. Paleoseismic data present challenges for assimilation into models because data sets are small, sparse, analog, and contain qualitative uncertainties. Observations can be categorized as primary measurements from field data, or non-primary extrapolations or interpretations of primary data. Assimilation of non-primary data could yield biased simulation results. We present a primary data set for the San Andreas and Imperial faults for comparison with non-primary data in existing databases, and propose standard formats and structure for paleoseismic data assimilation into numerical simulation models.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3rd ACES International Workshop, Maui, HI, MAY 05-10, 2002</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsu'ura, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, XC</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational earthquake science - Part I</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">computational science</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake physics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">faults</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">finite element models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical modeling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">rheology</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9-10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1823-1825</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsu'ura, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, XC</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational earthquake science. Part II</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">computational science</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake physics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">faults</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">finite-element models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical modeling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">theology</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2119-2122</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martins, JSS</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ergodicity in natural fault systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9-10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1957-1968</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Attempts to understand the physics of earthquakes over the past decade generally have focused on applying methods and theories developed based upon phase transitions, materials science, and percolation theory to a variety of numerical simulations of extended fault networks. This recent work suggests that fault systems can be interpreted as mean-field threshold systems in metastable equilibrium (RUNDLE et al., 1995; KLEIN et al., 1997; FERGUSON et al., 1999), and that these results strongly support the view that seismic activity is highly correlated across many space and time scales within large volumes of the earth's crust (RUNDLE et al., 2000; TIAMPO el al., 2002). In these systems, the time averaged elastic energy of the system fluctuates around a constant value for some period of time and is punctuated by major events that reorder the system before it settles into another metastable energy well. One way to measure the stability of such a system is to check a quantity called the Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) energy metric (THIRUMALAI and MOUNTAIN, 1993; KLEIN et al., 1996). In particular, using this metric, we show that the actual California fault system is ergodic in space and time for the period in question, punctuated by the occurrence of large earthquakes, and that, for individual events in the system, there are correlated regions that are a subset of the larger fault network.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3rd ACES International Workshop, Maui, HI, MAY 05-10, 2002</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Glasscoe, MT</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, LH</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, GA</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Evidence of strain partitioning between the Sierra Madre fault and the Los Angeles Basin, southern California from numerical models</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">crustal deformation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">faults</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">finite-element models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geodesy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical modeling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">rheology</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11-12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2343-2357</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geodetic data indicate that the northern Metropolitan Los Angeles region is shortening at a rate of 4.5-6.0 mm/yr between downtown Los Angeles and the San Gabriel Mountains. If we assume that all of the uplift of the San Gabriel Mountains is due to the major frontal fault system (the Sierra Madre fault) and use reported values for bedrock uplift, slip per event and recurrence intervals to determine the slip rate on the Sierra Madre fault, we obtain slip rates between 0.6-1.27 mm/yr. Using these slip rates, the horizontal shortening attributable to the Sierra Madre fault accounts for only similar to 33% of the observed shortening across the basin, leaving similar to 67% of the shortening to be accounted for elsewhere. Herein we present a suite of models that test possible shortening mechanisms to account for this strain deficit. The models incorporate a range of fault geometries and have a layered structure with variable vertical and horizontal rheologies. The models demonstrate how lower-crust rheology and the presence of a low rigidity, anelastically deforming sedimentary basin affects the dissipation of stress imposed on the viscous layers by elastic failure of the faults. We found that viscoelastic models with a single fault, vertically strong crust and a compliant sedimentary basin yield a horizontal velocity profile that best matches the geodetically observed velocity profile across the Los Angeles Basin. Our models also indicate that we are still not accounting for all of the observed deformation. Therefore, more complex models that include both laterally varying rheologies and frictional properties on faults must be considered.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3rd ACES International Workshop, Maui, HI, MAY 05-10, 2002</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shcherbakov, R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A generalized Omori's law for earthquake aftershock decay</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUN 12</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">31</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake aftershock sequences have been found to approximately satisfy three empirical scaling relations: i) the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, ii) Bath's law for the difference in the magnitude of a mainshock and its largest aftershock, and iii) the modified Omori's law for the temporal decay of aftershock rates. The three laws are incorporated to give a generalized Omori's law for aftershock decay rates that depend on several parameters specific for each given seismogenic region. It is shown that the characteristic time c, first introduced in the modified Omori's law, is no longer a constant but scales with a lower magnitude cutoff and a mainshock magnitude. The generalized Omori's law is tested against earthquake catalogs for the aftershock sequences of the Landers, Northridge, Hector Mine, and San Simeon earthquakes.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Luyendyk, BP</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS evidence for a coherent Antarctic plate and for postglacial rebound in Marie Byrd Land</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Antarctica</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">postglacial rebound</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tectonics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-4</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">42</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">305-311</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS measurements collected between 1999 and 2002 in Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica indicate no significant present motion between East and West Antarctica greater than 1-2 mm/year. Low strain rates imply that the Ross Sea rift is either inactive or active at a very low rate. This result indicates that the two subcontinents are likely joined as a single coherent lithospheric plate. They could have been joined since the end of Adare Trough spreading in Oligocene time. The volcanic activity in the Ross Sea sector at present such as at Mount Erebus is most likely related to mantle upwelling and not associated with continental rifting. GPS measurements of vertical rates indicate postglacial rebound of up to 12 4 mm/year in western Marie Byrd Land (wMBL). Errors are scaled 1sigma. The rock uplift rates are consistent with postglacial rebound models of significant ice thinning in the easter, Ross Ice Shelf in the late Holocene. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">complex systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">interactions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">scaling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">simulations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stress</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">systems</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">8</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Int Union Geodesy &amp; Geophys</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003 SANSEI JIYUGAOKA HAIMU, 5-27-19 OKUSAWA, SETAGAYA-KU, TOKYO, 158-0083, JAPAN</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">56</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">761-771</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We discuss the problem of earthquake forecasting in the context of new models for the dynamics based on statistical physics. Here we focus on new, topologically realistic system-level approaches to the modeling of earthquake faults. We show that the frictional failure physics of earthquakes in these complex, topologically realistic models leads to self-organization of the statistical dynamics, and produces statistical distributions characterizing the activity, notably the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency distribution, that are similar to those observed in nature. In particular, we show that a parameterization of friction that includes a simple representation of a dynamic stress intensity factor is needed to organize the dynamics. We also show that the slip distributions for synthetic events obtained in the model are also similar to those observed in nature</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">23rd General Assembly of the International-Union-of-Geodesy-and Geophysics, Sapporo, JAPAN, JUL, 2003</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ries, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierce, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Crippen, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DeJong, E</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chao, B</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kuang, WJ</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McLeod, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matu'ura, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bloxham, J</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Illuminating earth's interior through advanced computing</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTING IN SCIENCE &amp; ENGINEERING</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JAN-FEB</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IEEE COMPUTER SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10662 LOS VAQUEROS CIRCLE, PO BOX 3014, LOS ALAMITOS, CA 90720-1314 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">36-44</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Today's computational strategies for modeling Earth's interior structure and dynamics come from high-performance computing systems in the US and others such as the Japanese Earth Simulator Modeling efforts currently underway focus on problems such. as geodynamo and earthquake modeling.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martins, JSS</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McGinnis, S</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Methods for evaluation of geodetic data and seismicity developed with numerical simulations: Review and applications</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">deformation patterns</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake fault systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical simulations</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1489-1507</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this work we review the development of both established and innovative analytical techniques using numerical simulations of the southern California fault system and demonstrate the viability of these methods with examples using actual data. The ultimate goal of these methods is to better understand how the surface of the Earth is changing on both long-and short-term time scales, and to use the resulting information to learn about the internal processes in the underlying crust and to predict future changes in the deformation and stress field. Three examples of the analysis and visualization techniques are discussed in this paper and include the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition technique, local Ginsberg criteria (LGC) analysis, and phase dynamical probability change (PDPC). Examples of the potential results from these methods are provided through their application to data from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN), historic seismicity data, and simulated InSAR data, respectively. These analyses, coupled with advances in modeling and simulation, will provide the capability to track changes in deformation and stress through time, and to relate these to the development of space-time correlations and patterns.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Complutense Seminar on Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Univ Complutense, Sch Math, Madrid, SPAIN, OCT 08-11, 2001</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jentzsch, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Charco, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">New results at Mayon, Philippines, from a joint inversion of gravity and deformation measurements</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">displacement</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elastic-gravitational layered earth model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">genetic algorithm</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gravity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">volcanic source</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1433-1452</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this paper, we detail the combination of the genetic algorithm (GA) inversion technique with the elastic-gravitational model originally developed by Rundle and subsequently refined by Fernaandez and others. A sensitivity analysis is performed for the joint inversion of deformation and gravity to each of the model parameters, illustrating the importance of proper identification of both the strengths and limitations of any source model inversion, and this technique in particular. There is a practical comparison of the theoretical results with the inversion of geodetic data observed at the Mayon volcano in the Philippines, where there are gravity changes without significant deformation, after the 1993 eruption.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Complutense Seminar on Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Univ Complutense, Sch Math, Madrid, SPAIN, OCT 08-11, 2001</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>13</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Postseismic viscoelastic-gravitational half space computations: Problems and solutions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">deformation patterns</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake fault systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical simulations</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APR 3</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">31</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1489-1507</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">{We consider the problem of surface deformation arising from a fault in a semi-infinite, elastic-gravitational, and/or viscoelastic-gravitational, plane-layered medium, subject to an externally imposed gravitational acceleration g. Rundle {[</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Complutense Seminar on Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Univ Complutense, Sch Math, Madrid, SPAIN, OCT 08-11, 2001</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Charco, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Battaglia, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, L</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McClain, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Study of volcanic sources at Long Valley Caldera, California, using gravity data and a genetic algorithm inversion technique</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">fitness function</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">genetic algorithm</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gravity change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Long Valley Caldera</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JUL</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1399-1413</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We model the source inflation of the Long Valley Caldera, California, using a genetic algorithm technique and micro-gravity data. While there have been numerous attempts to model the magma injection at Long Valley Caldera from deformation data, this has proven difficult given the complicated spatial and temporal nature of the volcanic source. Recent work illustrates the effectiveness of considering micro-gravity measurements in volcanic areas. A genetic algorithm is a problem-solving technique which combines genetic and prescribed random information exchange. We perform two inversions, one for a single spherical point source and another for two-sources that might represent a more spatially distributed source. The forward model we use to interpret the results is the elastic-gravitational Earth model which takes into account the source mass and its interaction with the gravity field. The results demonstrate the need to incorporate more variations in the model, including another source geometry and the faulting mechanism. In order to provide better constraints on intrusion volumes, future work should include the joint inversion of gravity and deformation data during the same epoch.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Complutense Seminar on Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Univ Complutense, Sch Math, Madrid, SPAIN, OCT 08-11, 2001</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ben-Zion, Y</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McGinnis, S</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Using eigenpattern analysis to constrain seasonal signals in southern California</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">OCT</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9-10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1991-2003</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake fault systems are now thought to be an example ora complex nonlinear system (BAKE et al., 1987; RUNDLE and KLEIN, 1995). The spatial and temporal complexity of this system translates into a similar complexity in the surface expression of the underlying physics, including deformation and seismicity. Here we show that a new pattern dynamic methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena (PREISENDORFER, 1988), the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) (FUKUNAGA, 1970; RUNDLE et al., 2000; TIAMPO et al., 2002). This KLE technique may be used to determine the important modes in both time and space for the southern California GPS data, modes that potentially include such time-dependent signals as plate velocities, viscoelasticity, and seasonal effects. Here we attempt to characterize several of the seasonal vertical signals on various spatial scales. These, in turn, can be used to better model geophysical signals of interest such as coseismic deformation, viscoelastic effects, and creep, as well as provide data assimilation and model verification for large-scale numerical simulations of southern California.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3rd ACES International Workshop, Maui, HI, MAY 05-10, 2002</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jentzsch, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Charco, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Volcanic source inversion using a genetic algorithm and an elastic-gravitational layered earth model for magmatic intrusions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTERS &amp; GEOSCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">displacement</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elastic-gravitational layered earth model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gravity change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mathematical geophysics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">nonlinear inversion methodology</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOV-DEC</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9-10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">30</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">985-1001</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Here we present an inversion methodology using the combination of a genetic algorithm (GA) inversion program, and an elastic-gravitational earth model to determine the parameters of a volcanic intrusion. Results from the integration of the elastic-gravitational model, a suite of FORTRAN 77 programs developed to compute the displacements due to volcanic loading, with the GA inversion code, written in the C programming language, are presented. These codes allow for the calculation of displacements (horizontal and vertical), tilt, vertical strain and potential and gravity changes on the surface of an elastic-gravitational layered Earth model due to the magmatic intrusion. We detail the appropriate methodology for examining the sensitivity of the model to variation in the constituent parameters using the GA, and present, for the first time, a Monte Carlo technique for evaluating the propagation of error through the GA inversion process. One application example is given at Mayon volcano, Philippines, for the inversion program, the sensitivity analysis, and the error evaluation. The integration of the GA with the complex elastic-gravitational model is a blueprint for an efficient nonlinear inversion methodology and its implementation into an effective tool for the evaluation of parameter sensitivity. Finally, the extension of this inversion algorithm and the error assessment methodology has important implications to the modeling and data assimilation of a number of other nonlinear applications in the field of geosciences. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, RA</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sloot, PMA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abramson, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bogdanov, AV</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dongarra, JJ</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zomaya, AY</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gorbachev, YE</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A method of hidden Markov model optimization for use with geophysical data sets</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTATIONAL SICENCE - ICCS 2003, PT III, PROCEEDINGS</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">LECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Univ Amsterdam; Hewlett Packard; Springer Verlag; Netherlands Inst St Petersburg; Russian Federat, Minist Ind, Sci &amp; Technol; Govt St Petersburg, Comm Sci &amp; High Educ; St Petersburg State Tech Univ; Inst High Performance Comp &amp; Informat Syst; IBM Australi</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, D-14197 BERLIN, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2659</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">892-901</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-540-40196-2</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geophysics research has been faced with a growing need for automated techniques with which to process large quantities of data. A successful tool must meet a number of requirements: it should be consistent, require minimal parameter tuning, and produce scientifically meaningful results in reasonable time. We introduce a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based method for analysis of geophysical data sets that attempts to address these issues. Our method improves on standard HMM methods and is based on the systematic analysis of structural local maxima of the HMM objective function. Preliminary results of the method as applied to geodetic and seismic records are presented.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS 2003), MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, JUN 02-04, 2003</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, G</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tullis, T</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sloot, PMA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abramson, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bogdanov, AV</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dongarra, JJ</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zomaya, AY</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gorbachev, YE</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Performance modeling codes for the QuakeSim problem solving environment</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTATIONAL SICENCE - ICCS 2003, PT III, PROCEEDINGS</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">LECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Univ Amsterdam; Hewlett Packard; Springer Verlag; Netherlands Inst St Petersburg; Russian Federat, Minist Ind, Sci &amp; Technol; Govt St Petersburg, Comm Sci &amp; High Educ; St Petersburg State Tech Univ; Inst High Performance Comp &amp; Informat Syst; IBM Australi</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, D-14197 BERLIN, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2659</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">855-862</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-540-40196-2</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The QuakeSim Problem Solving Environment uses a web-services approach to unify and deploy diverse remote data sources and processing services within a browser environment. Here we focus on the high-performance crustal modelling applications that will be included in this set of remote but interoperable applications. PARK is a model for unstable slip on a single earthquake fault represented as discrete patches, able to cover a very wide range of temporal and spatial scales. GeoFEST simulates stress evolution, fault slip and visco-elastic processes in realistic materials. Virtual California simulates fault interaction to determine correlated patterns in the nonlinear complex system of an entire plate boundary region. Pattern recognition tools extract Karhunen-Loeve modes and Hidden Markov state models from physical and virtual data streams. Sequential code benchmarking demonstrates PARK computes 15,000 patches for 500 time steps in under 8 hours (SGI Origin 3000), GeoFEST computes 50,000 tetrahedral elements for 1000 steps in under 14 hours (Sun Workstation), and Virtual California computes 215 fault segments for 10,000 time steps in under 0.5 hours (Pentium III). QuakeSim goals for June 2004 are to deploy MPI parallel codes that compute 400,000 patches (PARK), 16,000,000 tetrahedra (GeoFEST) and 700 segments (Virtual California) in essentially the same wallclock time, incorporating powerful tools such as stress field multipoles and the ESTO/PYRAMID mesh partitioning and refinement tools.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS 2003), MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, JUN 02-04, 2003</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fox, G</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sloot, PMA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abramson, D</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bogdanov, AV</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dongarra, JJ</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zomaya, AY</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gorbachev, YE</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Strategies for the detection and analysis of space-time patterns of earthquakes on complex fault systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTATIONAL SICENCE - ICCS 2003, PT III, PROCEEDINGS</style></secondary-title><tertiary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">LECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE</style></tertiary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Univ Amsterdam; Hewlett Packard; Springer Verlag; Netherlands Inst St Petersburg; Russian Federat, Minist Ind, Sci &amp; Technol; Govt St Petersburg, Comm Sci &amp; High Educ; St Petersburg State Tech Univ; Inst High Performance Comp &amp; Informat Syst; IBM Australi</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, D-14197 BERLIN, GERMANY</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2659</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">827-836</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3-540-40196-2</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Oar research focuses on computational techniques to understand the dynamics of space-time patterns in driven threshold systems, particularly on earthquake fault systems. We discuss the scientific and computational formulation of strategies for understanding such space-time patterns:, leading optimistically to earthquake forecasting and prediction. In particular, we describe pattern dynamics techniques that can be used to relate the observable processes on earthquake fault systems to the fundamentally unobservable dynamical processes. To illustrate our results, we study the emergent modes of the earthquake fault system in southern California, both with models (Virtual California) and with data.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS 2003), MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, JUN 02-04, 2003</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parker, JW</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Peltzer, G</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Combined GPS and InSAR models of postseismic deformation from the Northridge earthquake</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">afterslip</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">InSAR</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Northridge</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">159</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2261-2270</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Models of combined Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data collected in the region of the Northridge earthquake indicate that significant afterslip on the main fault occurred following the earthquake. Additional shallow deformation occurred to the west of the main rupture plane. Both data sets are consistent with logarithmic time-dependent behavior following the earthquake indicative of afterslip rather than postseismic relaxation. Aftershocks account for only about 10% of the postseismic motion. The two data sets are complimentary in determining the postseismic processes. Fault afterslip and shallow deformation dominate the deformation field in the two years following the earthquake. Lower crustal deformation may play an important role later in the earthquake cycle.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yu, TT</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fernandez, J.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Deformation produced by a rectangular dipping fault in a viscoelastic-gravitational layered earth model. Part II: Strike-slip fault - STRGRV and STRGRH FORTRAN programs (vol 22, pg 751, 1996)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">COMPUTERS &amp; GEOSCIENCES</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">28</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">89-91</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Correction</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsu'ura, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, XC</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake processes: Physical modelling, numerical simulation and data analysis - Part I</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AUG</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">159</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1905-1907</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Matsu'ura, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mora, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yin, XC</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquake processes: Physical modelling, numerical simulation and data analysis - Part II</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">159</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2169-2171</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McGinnis, S</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gross, SJ</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Eigenpatterns in southern California seismicity</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">fault system dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mathematical methods in geophysics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">southern California</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DEC 18</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">B12</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">107</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes in seismically active regions of the world are known to be associated with a variety of spatial and temporal patterns. Examples include precursory quiescence or activation, seismic clustering, and Mogi donuts. Although the characteristics of these patterns can be qualitatively described, a systematic quantitative analysis has proved elusive. In this paper we employ a new method, developed using numerical simulations, that allows a systematic quantification of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the patterns in historic seismicity in southern California. This method decomposes a set of boolean activity functions, representing historic seismicity, into their orthonormal eigenvalues and eigenfunctions. Here we show the results of this analysis which strongly support the hypothesis that seismic activity is highly correlated across many space scales and timescales within large volumes of the Earth's crust.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, P. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">de sa Martins, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kellogg, LH</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GEM plate boundary Simulations for the plate boundary observatory: A program for understanding the physics of earthquakes on complex fault networks via observations, theory and numerical simulation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Earthquakes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthscope</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">numerical simulations</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">159</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2357-2381</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The last five years have seen unprecedented growth in the amount and quality of geodetic data collected to characterize crustal deformation in earthquake-prone areas such as California and Japan. The installation of the Southern California Integrated Geodetic Network (SCIGN) and the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network are two examples. As part of the recently proposed Earthscope NSF/GEO/EAR/MRE initiative, the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) plans to place more than a thousand GPS, strainmeters, and deformation sensors along the active plate boundary of the western coast of the United States, Mexico and Canada (http://www.earthscope.org/pbo.com.html). The scientific goals of PBO include understanding how tectonic plates interact, together with an emphasis on understanding the physics of earthquakes. However, the problem of understanding the physics of earthquakes on complex fault networks through observations alone is complicated by our inability to study the problem in a manner familiar to laboratory scientists, by means of controlled, fully reproducible experiments. We have therefore been motivated to construct a numerical simulation technology that will allow us to study earthquake physics via numerical experiments. To be considered successful, the simulations must not only produce observables that are maximally similar to those seen by the PBO and other observing programs, but in addition the simulations must provide dynamical predictions that can be falsified by means of observations on the real fault networks. In general, the dynamical behavior of earthquakes on complex fault networks is a result of the interplay between the geometric structure of the fault network and the physics of the frictional sliding process. In constructing numerical simulations of a complex fault network, we will need to solve a variety of problems, including the development of analysis techniques (also called data mining), data assimilation, space-time pattern definition and analysis, and visualization needs. Using simulations of the network of the major strike-slip faults in southern California, we present a preliminary description of our methods and results, and comment upon the relative roles of fault network geometry and frictional sliding in determining the important dynamical modes of the system.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Granat, R</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A hidden Markov model based tool for geophysical data exploration</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">annealing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">clustering</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geophysics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GPS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HMM</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismic</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">159</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2271-2283</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Unsupervised learning techniques provide a way of investigating scientific data based on automated generation of statistical models. Because these techniques are not dependent on a priori information, they provide an unbiased method for separating data into distinct types. Thus they can be used as an objective method by which to identify data as belonging to previously known classes or to find previously unknown or rare classes and subclasses of data. Hidden Markov model based unsupervised learning methods are particularly applicable to geophysical systems because time relationships between classes, or states of the system, are included in the model. We have applied a modified version of hidden Markov models which employ a deterministic annealing technique to scientific analysis of seismicity and GPS data from the southern California region. Preliminary results indicate that the technique can isolate distinct classes of earthquakes from seismicity data.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McGinnis, S</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gross, SJ</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EUROPHYSICS LETTERS</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOV</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EDP SCIENCES S A</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17, AVE DU HOGGAR, PA COURTABOEUF, BP 112, F-91944 LES ULIS CEDEX A, FRANCE</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">60</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">481-487</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Driven mean-field threshold systems demonstrate complex observable space-time patterns of behavior that are difficult to understand or predict without knowledge of the underlying dynamics, which are typically unobservable. Here we describe new method based on phase dynamics techniques to analyze and forecast the space-time patterns of activity in these systems. Application to earthquake data from typical, seismically active region shows that the method holds considerable promise for forecasting the temporal occurrence of the largest future events. We demonstrate the power of our technique via an application to the difficult problem of earthquake forecasting in southern California.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hopper, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martins, JS</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gross, S</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McGinnis, S</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parallelization of a large-scale computational earthquake simulation program</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE &amp; EXPERIENCE</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">earthquake fault simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">genetic algorithm</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">parallel computing</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAY-JUN</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6-7</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOHN WILEY &amp; SONS LTD</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">14</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">531-550</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Here we detail both the methods and preliminary results of the first efforts to parallelize three General Earthquake Model (GEM)-related codes: (1) a relatively simple data mining procedure based on a genetic algorithm; (2) a mean-field slider block model; and (3) the Virtual California simulation of GEM. These preliminary results, using a simple, heterogeneous system of processors, existing freeware and an extremely low initial cost in both manpower and hardware dollars, motivate us to more ambitious work with considerably larger-scale computer earthquake simulations of southern California. The GEM computational problem, which is essentially a Monte Carlo simulation, is well suited to optimization on parallel computers and we outline how we are proceeding in implementing this new software architecture. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ACES Workshop on Earthquake Science, HAKONE, JAPAN, OCT 15-20, 2000</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">McGinnis, SA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern dynamics and forecast methods in seismically active regions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">fault system dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mathematical methods in geophysics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">pattern dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seismicity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEP</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">VIADUKSTRASSE 40-44, PO BOX 133, CH-4010 BASEL, SWITZERLAND</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">159</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2429-2467</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Large, extended fault systems such as those in California demonstrate complex space-time seismicity patterns, which include repetitive events, precursory activity and quiescence, and aftershock sequences. Although the characteristics of these patterns can be qualitatively described, a systematic quantitative analysis remains elusive. Our research suggests that a new pattern dynamics methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of seismicity patterns for a given fault system. In addition, while a long-sought goal of earthquake research has been the reliable forecasting of these events, very little progress has been made in developing a successful, consistent methodology. In this report, we document the discovery of systematic space-time variations in seismicity from southern California using a new technique. Here we present examples of this analysis technique on data obtained prior to events in seismically active areas that show coherent regions associated with the future occurrence of major earthquakes in the same areas. These results strongly support the hypothesis that seismic activity is highly correlated across many space and time scales within large volumes of the earth's crust.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martins, JSS</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Anghel, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Precursory dynamics in threshold systems</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PHYSICAL REVIEW E</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MAY</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5, Part 2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER PHYSICAL SOC</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ONE PHYSICS ELLIPSE, COLLEGE PK, MD 20740-3844 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">65</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A precursory dynamics, motivated by the analysis of recent experiments on solid-on-solid friction, is introduced in a continuous cellular automaton that mimics the physics of earthquake source processes. The resulting system of equations for the interevent cycle can be decoupled and yields an analytical solution in the mean-field limit, exhibiting a smoothing effect of the dynamics on the stress field. Simulation results show the resulting departure from scaling at the large-event end of the frequency distribution, and support claims that the field leakage may parametrize the superposition of scaling and characteristic regimes observed in real earthquake faults.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tiampo, K. F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klein, W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martins, JSS</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 19</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Natl Acad Sci</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">99</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2514-2521</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Threshold systems are known to be some of the most important nonlinear self-organizing systems in nature, including networks of earthquake faults, neural networks, superconductors and semiconductors, and the World Wide Web, as well as political, social, and ecological systems. All of these systems have dynamics that are strongly correlated in space and time, and all typically display a multiplicity of spatial and temporal scales. Here we discuss the physics of self-organization in earthquake threshold systems at two distinct scales: (i) The ``microscopic{''} laboratory scale, in which consideration of results from simulations leads to dynamical equations that can be used to derive the results obtained from sliding friction experiments, and (ii) the ``macroscopic{''} earthquake fault-system scale, in which the physics of strongly correlated earthquake fault systems can be understood by using time-dependent state vectors defined in a Hilbert space of eigenstates, similar in many respects to the mathematics of quantum mechanics. In all of these systems, long-range interactions induce the existence of locally ergodic dynamics. The existence of dissipative effects leads to the appearance of a ``leaky threshold{''} dynamics, equivalent to a new scaling field that controls the size of nucleation events relative to the size of background fluctuations. At the macroscopic earthquake fault-system scale, these ideas show considerable promise as a means of forecasting future earthquake activity.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article; Proceedings Paper</style></work-type><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Colloquium of the National-Academy-of-Science on Self-Organized Complexity in the Physical, Biological, and Social Sciences, NAS BECKMAN CTR, IRVINE, CALIFORNIA, MAR 23-24, 2001</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Turcotte, D. L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rundle, J. B.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Self-organized complexity in the physical, biological, and social sciences</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 19</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NATL ACAD SCIENCES</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">99</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2463-2465</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Editorial Material</style></work-type></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lyzenga, GA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Panero, WR</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Donnellan, A.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Influence of anelastic surface layers on postseismic thrust fault deformation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">FEB 10</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">B2</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">105</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3151-3157</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We present the results of a systematic modeling study of postseismic deformation following blind thrust earthquakes. The results include qualitative and quantitative predictions' of the surface movement caused by relaxation in viscoelastic near-surface layers. Finite element forward models are used in conjunction with elastic dislocation inversions to characterize the postseismic deformation. A viscoelastic surface layer overlying a blind thrust fault in an elastic basement shows characteristic signatures of postseismic surface movement. Simple equivalent elastic dislocations located in the hanging wall wedge are found to provide an effective proxy for near-surface postseismic relaxation in two-dimensional numerical simulations. A model survey of a range of fault dip angles and layer geometries shows the time evolution and geometry of the proxy fault to be simply related to fault dip and sediment thickness. The results are of significance in the interpretation of postseismic Global Positioning System (CPS) strain data from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and other similar events in regions characterized by poorly consolidated or otherwise anelastic layers overlying the brittle seismogenic zone.</style></abstract><work-type><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Article</style></work-type></record></records></xml>
