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Rundle JB, Rundle PB, Donnellan A, Turcotte DL, Shcherbakov R, Li P, Malamud BD, Grant LB, Fox GC, McLeod D. A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. 2005;102:15363-15367.